Why Trump can reverse the poll was elected-stellarium

Why Trump can reverse the poll was elected? Original title: why Trump can reverse the poll, high-profile election? Beijing News News (reporter Wang Xiaofeng) in 2008 and 2016 presidential election in the United States are two closely connected, difficult to cut the political moment, is an earthquake and an aftershock, let the Americans shocked, thus opening a huge contradiction with the era of division. Today, the climax of this era, Trump in the absence of a high opinion polls to win the election, creating a precedent for u.s.. Why the polls and election results instead? "Trump is a supporter of many polls of voters ignored" a week before the election, the Hilary poll is still ahead of Trump, but the election day in a number of Key States lost to Trump, from the ballot on the map, even Pennsylvania and Michigan, the traditional Democratic camp is a rosy. "This is a surprising result, the United States public opinion is so serious, the actual turnout is relatively high, the U.S. public discontent." Chinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher Diao Daming, assistant to the u.s.. Why so many polls and election polls, Diao Daming explained that the only prediction and basis, Trump supporters should be greatly underestimated the poll, poll is the main way of telephone and home interview, this part of the respondents are not affected by globalization people. Those who hold the public mood, hate the political elite, look forward to improve the voters will eventually sent Trump into the White House, but they were ignored polls of voters. The U.S. presidential election history have occurred poll amusing incident, for example, Truman and Dewey in the presidential race era, when the polls were announced that Dewey will win the Democratic Republican Truman about 5 percentage points before the vote. But the election results, contrary to the polls, because the polling company is only a visit to the phone at the time of the affluent voters, ignoring the general public. In addition to the polls, another key is that the small party candidates in the swing states to differentiate the crucial votes, Hilary in those states only in a very weak position. Diao Daming pointed out that originally thought that these small parties will be more differentiation Trump votes, but also the differentiation of Hilary votes, to a certain extent affect Hilary defeated state key. But you will not be able to defeat Hilary attributed to third party ticket, because Hilary not only defeated one or two key states, the biggest impact is discontent. The United States people why so big? 2008 up to 2016 although there are grievances influence differentiation votes brought by the overwhelming influence of the key is discontent. "New York Times" pointed out that American politics from 2008 to 2016 is a carnival after the abyss of depression. Diao Daming pointed out that even if Ohio and Florida lose, if can hold traditional democratic state can still win the election, such as president Kennedy. But Hilary also lost the traditional democratic camp, for example, Michigan and Pennsylvania, these States reflects white in today’s economic downturn grievances, which also shows the individual ability to turn public opinion outlet. New York Times pointed out that if the 2008 at least 2相关的主题文章: