New property tax worries behind the new deal-www.xs99.com

The deed behind the new deal market worries the sina finance opinion leader (WeChat public kopleader) columnist Zhang Hongwei property market bailout policy more frequently, but the description of the current economic situation on the market more serious, China future property market situation is more serious, more problems facing the future market, the future will still hide more market risk. The deed behind the new deal market worries in February 19th, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation, the Ministry of housing jointly issued a document to lower the personal purchase of housing tax, especially for 90 square meters of individual housing adjustment. My comments are as follows: 1, first of all, is a differential deed tax policy. From the city’s point of view, since the second half of 2015, north of Guangzhou Shenzhen due to overheating housing market, the policy does not give too much care of two suites, but also for the purchase of more than 2 years of housing transactions business tax and other city to distinguish, and not implement this notice first second deed tax incentives and two business tax preferential policies, business tax policy of the city personal housing transfer is still in accordance with "the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of taxation [micro-blog] on the business tax policies on individual housing transfer notice" (taxation 2015 No. 39); 2, for the first set, needs to improve, in the purchase, the two circulation also take different the deed tax measures, but overall, the Ministry of finance tax deal is on the real estate market to encourage and stimulate digestion, to non first-tier cities inventory . 3, the new deal is no longer mentioned the distinction between ordinary residential and non residential different, directly in accordance with the area of 90 square meters down to determine the different tax rate; the new rate standards no longer referred to as "five only", "two only", saying that redefined the concept of the first suite and two suites, directly to the family second sets of definitions for the improvement of housing has a family housing, family housing to buy second sets. The main role of policy: deed tax new deal is conducive to revitalize the non – first – tier cities market circulation and sales links. This is mainly manifested in three aspects: 1, from the policy characteristics, whether it is the deep North of Guangzhou first-tier cities, or other non first-tier cities, for the first set of 90 square meters of housing or encouraged, therefore, for since the housing demand is concerned, the Ministry of Finance after the new deal, to 90 square meters of the first suite buyers there is still, but also conducive to the sale of these items and to inventory. 2, from the point of view of the second-hand housing market, (non first-tier cities) individuals will purchase less than 2 years of housing sales, the full collection of business tax, individuals will purchase more than 2 years (including 2 years) of the housing sales, exempt from sales tax, it will increase the first-tier cities with such the proportion of the housing conditions, especially to improve the type of demand, due to business tax relief, plus tax relief, reduce transaction costs to purchase circulation, to improve the groups speaking, you can sell the original 90 square meters of real estate for improvement or replacement of more than 90 square meters of housing. From this tax new deal and 330 New Deal two policy superposition market effect, politics. 契税新政背后的楼市隐忧   文 新浪财经意见领袖(微信公众号kopleader)专栏作家 张宏伟   楼市“救市”政策越频发,反而说明当前经济形势依赖楼市越严重,中国未来的楼市形势越严峻,未来楼市面临的问题越多,未来仍然会隐藏更多的市场风险。 契税新政背后的楼市隐忧   2月19日,财政部、国税总局、住建部联合发文,调低个人购买住房的契税税率,尤其侧重对90平方米以下个人住房的调整。我对此点评如下:   1、首先是一个差异化契税政策。从城市的角度来看,2015年下半年以来,北上广深由于商品住宅市场过热,政策面并没有给予二套房过多照顾,也对于购买2年以上的住房交易营业税与其他城市区别开来,暂不实施本通知第一条第二项契税优惠政策及第二条营业税优惠政策,上述城市个人住房转让营业税政策仍按照《财政部 国家税务总局[微博]关于调整个人住房转让营业税政策的通知》(财税〔2015〕39号)执行;   2、对于首套、改善型需求来讲,在购买、二次流通环节也采取不同的契税措施,但是,总体上来看,本次财政部契税新政都是对房地产市场的鼓励和刺激,旨在消化非一线城市的库存。   3、新政不再提及普通住宅和非不同住宅的区别,直接按照90平方米面积上下来确定不同的税率;新政的税率标准也不再提及类似“满五唯一”、“满二唯一”、的说法,重新界定了首套房与二套房的概念,直接将家庭第二套改善性住房定义为已拥有一套住房的家庭,购买的家庭第二套住房。   政策的主要作用:契税新政有利于盘活非一线城市市场流通与销售环节。这主要表现在三个方面:   1、从政策特征来看,无论是北上广深一线城市,还是其他非一线城市,对于90平方米以下的首套房源还是持鼓励态度,因此,对于自住需求来讲,财政部新政之后,仍然有利于90平方米以下的首套房购房者,也有利于这些项目的销售和去库存。   2、从二手房市场角度来看,(非一线城市)个人将购买不足2年的住房对外销售的,全额征收营业税,个人将购买2年以上(含2年)的住房对外销售的,免征营业税,这样的话,非一线城市符合这样条件的房源比例将大幅增加,尤其是对于改善型需求来讲,由于营业税的减免,再加上契税的减免,降低了购房流通领域的交易成本,对于改善群体来讲,就可以卖掉原有90平方米以下的房产进行改善或置换90平方米以上的房源。   从本次契税新政与330新政两个政策的叠加市场效果来看,政策面总体上有助于非一线城市首次改善或置换型改善需求积极入市。再加上目前公积金贷款、商业贷款二套房贷首付比例都已经明确降低,这对于置换型需求、改善型需求来讲,势必会抓紧这个入市窗口期积极入市。从一手房市场库存的角度来讲,由于改善型需求的积极入市,有助于改善大多数城市库存结构比例,降低中大户型库存市场占比,有助于加速去库存,降低市场的去化压力。   3、对于北上广深这样的一线城市来讲,90平方米以下首套房仍然受到市场的支持,但是90平方米以上市场在本次政策当中并没有得到明显的鼓励,因此,本次政策对于北上广深90平方米以上项目来讲影响不大。   “楼市契税新政”背后的房企机会:不要恋战,抓住跑量去库存的“窗口期”   2014年下半年以来,尽管大部分城市限购政策取消、330新政出台、财政部契税新政出台、各地方政府也在发布“救市”措施、央行[微博]已经累计六次降息五次降准,货币政策宽松与楼市相关的各种政策层面的利好纷沓而至,但是,这些政策的效果都是短期的,并不代表未来楼市基本面会一直持续回升,不代表未来问题会越来越少。笔者认为,楼市“救市”政策越频发,反而说明当前经济形势依赖楼市越严重,中国未来的楼市形势越严峻,未来楼市面临的问题越多,未来仍然会隐藏更多的市场风险。   对于房企来讲,财政部新政之后,首先应积极调整推盘节奏,把控好契税新政、六次降息五次降准等政策面给予的跑量去库存的“窗口期”,增加2016年上半年销售业绩在全年的比例,防止市场环境在下半年出现变化而导致企业被动推盘的局面;   其次,对于非一线城市来讲,调整并优化库存结构,积极去库存,无论是90平方米以下的首套房,还是90平方米以上的首次改善项目或置换型项目,不要恋战,不要期待房价再次快速大幅上涨,或继续博弈市场,即使市场具备涨价条件也不要捂盘惜售,二是想方设法尽快实现销售业绩回升。   原因主要有两点:一是,从楼市大趋势来看,楼市已经进入下半场,从供求基本面来看已基本平衡,市场需求已基本得到满足,捂盘惜售的结果只能是错过放量的“窗口期”,错过企业扭转局面的机会;二是,去年“330新政”以来大中城市房地产市场成交量价的回升主要是过去积压需求的集中释放,以及由于需求的集中释放而带来的市场需求的透支,如果房企据此以为未来楼市一直会保持这样的量价走势,那其实就是对于市场的误判,就极有可能在未来市场出现变化之时陷入被动局面。   从本轮市场发展趋势来看,新政会促使新一轮需求的释放和透支,待本轮市场需求在今年上半年集中释放完毕之时,下一轮市场的阶段性调整也就来临了。笔者认为,一线城市、部分二线城市楼市的量价齐升最多持续到今年上半年,也就是说, 2016年下半年新一轮的房地产市场调整极有可能会来临。届时,如果企业没有在今年上半年做到“未雨绸缪”,那么,房企就有可能会因此陷入被动推盘的局面,企业的资金面也会因此遇到问题。   第三,通过调整企业城市布局,优化储备项目结构,在产品设计上合理配置90平方米以下和90平方米以上的产品比例,降低企业运营风险。   (本文作者介绍:同策咨询研究中心总监张宏伟)   本文为作者独家授权新浪财经使用,请勿转载。所发表言论不代表本站观点。相关的主题文章: